Message posted by daveyh on 02 December 2011 at 5:17pm - IP Logged
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daveyh
This is a report from the Bank of England...
Greece 'to default within 5 years'
Bank of England report says country has 100 percent chance of bankruptcy
Greece is virtually certain to default on its huge debts within the next five years, according to a report by the Bank of England made public on Friday.
According to the bank’s report, Greece has a 100 percent chance to default on its debt within five years while Portugal faces a 60 percent risk of bankruptcy followed by Ireland and Italy with rates of 50 and 40 percent respectively.
The British central bank’s governor, Mervyn King, reportedly emphasized that these conclusions were not a theory put forward by the bank but had been calculated based on the impact on market prices of the debt crisis in each individual country.
Message posted by 2Tonsils on 02 December 2011 at 7:11pm - IP Logged
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Yet more speculation...the question is if the whole of the EU will survive the next five years? I can't see it happening...the whole damn thing is going to shatter into little pieces.
Message posted by Lavinia on 02 December 2011 at 9:15pm - IP Logged
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Quite honestly all the rumour and speculation flying around at present is very unsettling. But as long as Kerkyra is still here, this is where I wish to live. There is absolutely nothing I can do about the international situation, so I shall keep my ear to the ground, listen to everything I hear with a pinch of salt, pay my dues and continue to enjoy living in such a beautiful environment as long as I am able.
Message posted by malton on 02 December 2011 at 9:19pm - IP Logged
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Absolutely agree Lavinia- rumours, however well founded, are just that until something actually happens. We are all tightening our belts and being careful, apart from that all we can do is keep abreast of events.
Message posted by J&L on 02 December 2011 at 10:05pm - IP Logged
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Agreed Lavinia...I wouldn't say the Bank of Englands glass ball has been very accurate in recent years - else we wouldn't all be in the mess we are in.
Message posted by C4owner on 03 December 2011 at 9:21am - IP Logged
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That report was published before this statement from the German Chancellor:
EU leaders have been under pressure to do more to tackle the debt crisis, amid concern about the survival of the euro. In her speech, Mrs Merkel promised "concrete steps towards a fiscal union" - in effect close integration of the tax-and-spend polices of individual eurozone countries, with Brussels imposing penalties on members that break the rules.
"We need budget discipline and an effective crisis management mechanism," she said. "So we need to change the treaties or create new treaties." The German government has been pressing for changes to establish powers to veto national budgets in the eurozone that breach agreed rules.
"We have started a new phase in European integration," Mrs Merkel said
Absolutely no one knows what is going to happen.
Sometimes I think that these so called experts and pundits have less of an idea than we on this site do.
Their problem is that they are very highly paid and have to prove their worth.
Maybe they should join the real world and get a much better perspective of life.
All we can do is sit back and watch them mess up the economy whilst they are still able to receive fat salaries and even fatter pensions.
Them and us!!
There I feel better now.
Message posted by windmill on 03 December 2011 at 10:31pm - IP Logged
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Quote: Originally posted by windmill on 03 December 2011
J&L. Would you like to expand on your opinion? Who are we?
I think the "we" referred to is UK - though "we" the personal are certainly in a mess as well!
Paul Ormerod paper looking at what happened when recession hit is a good start to understanding why we might not want to trust Bank of England forecasting - "The Bank of England’s ‘fan charts’, which were meant to express the range of uncertainty around any given forecast, refused to countenance the possibility of a recession in the UK at any time in the next five years, until we actually were in recession."
http://www.paulormerod.com/pdf/accsoct09%20br.pdf
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